Winnipeg Jets (C2) vs Colorado Avalanche (C3)
Game 1 Win Probability WPG: 60.4%
Game 1 Win Probability COL: 39.6%
The Avs are an impressive team on all fronts, led by Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar to be 2nd in the league in 5v5 goals with 217. But the Jets will be a tough competitor, especially with home ice advantage. The Jets allowed the 2nd fewest 5v5 goals at 137 during the regular season, but also allowed 1,989 shots at 5v5 (15th), which speaks to the importance of Connor Helleybuck. Helleybuck has kept his save percentage above .918 since January and shut out the Avs at the end of the regular season in a 7-0 win.
The Jets swept the the regular season between these two and held Makar to 0 points in the 2 of 3 games he played. But in the two games (with Makar), MacKinnon still generated 7 and 9 shot attempts, 3 and 4 of which were even strength on goal. Since the Jets don’t generate as many chances (25.52 even strength SOG per Game), they will have to ensure Hellebuyck is sharp and they limit Nathan MacKinnon’s chances.
Vancouver Canucks (P1) vs Nashville Predators (WC1)
Game 1 Win Probability VAN: 50.5%
Game 1 Win Probability NSH: 49.5%
The Canucks have a pretty heavy roster between Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller. But the Canucks’ offense doesn’t come in and dominate the way other teams can. They are 27th in the NHL in 5v5 SOG per Game and with 279 total goals in the regular season, they rely on just 9 players for 80% of those goals, not necessarily indicating a ton of depth. Miller, however, was 9th in the NHL in Even Strength Points per 60. But the steadiness of Quinn Hughes’ offense and defense will undoubtedly be a source for the Canucks.
Similarly, the Predators have a ton of consistency from their top performers, like Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist. Forsberg generates at least 8 shot attempts per game and was closer with J.T. Miller as 11th in the league in Even Strength Points per 60 (2.96). The Predators will need Cup veteran Ryan O’Reilly to step up and create chances via the faceoff circle against Miller and Lindholm, both of whom are above 55% from the dot.
