- Daniel Sprong, RW
- Sprong was extremely valuable for Detroit this past season, with 43 points (18 goals and 25 assists) in his 76 games played. As a bottom 6 forward, that’s extremely productive. Sprong was consistently generating chances, posting 15.26 unblocked shot attempts per 60, which led the Red Wings, in his 12 minutes of ice time per game in the regular season. He also averaged 0.57 high quality shots per game, which was 6th on the team, and finished 7th in even strength expected goals with 16.77. On the other hand, he also finished 6th in xG against. Sprong’s last contract was $2M, 1 year deal. Based on the metrics, a player with similar xG numbers and role is Joel Armia, who will be going to year 4 of 4 in his contract that carries a $3.4M. While he may not get quite that high of an AAV, he could be looking at another $2M+ contract.
- Anthony Duclair, LW
- Duclair was a strong depth player for Tampa when he was acquired in March from San Jose. At $3M per year, it is a big cap hit, but perhaps worth it considering he finished T-3rd in high quality shots per game at even strength in the regular season (0.65) with 17 games played. And despite a short playoff run, the 28 year old was 3rd, among forwards, on the team in even strength expected goals (1.43) in the postseason. Duclair has a lot of speed and power to his game, which allows him to generate those high quality shots from low areas or the slot. He could go to a team that needs him in the top 6 or provide strong scoring depth on the third line for a contender.
- Matt Grzelcyk, D
- Grzelcyk was a solid defenseman for the Bruins, posting a +13 +/- this past regular season, though down from 2022-2023 at +46. His On-Ice expected goals against doesn’t jump out, and for defenseman, that number can get skewed quickly if they are playing top minutes against top forwards. What does jump out, however, is his on-ice expected goals for in comparison to his on-ice expected goals against. With 54.05 on-ice expected goals against at even strength, players with similar metrics include Nate Schmidt, Justin Schultz and Jared Tinnordi. But his on-ice expected goals for is 78.56, which is way higher than Schmidt, Schultz and Tinnordi. Players closer to those numbers include Eric Cernak, Jack Johnson, and Artem Zub.
- Chandler Stephenson, C
- Not sure if Stephenson can really fall under the category of underrated as it’s been pretty well documented how important he was to the Knights’ Stanley Cup run. But the center is set for free agency after winning 55% of his face-offs in the offensive zone (39th in the league for players who have taken at least 100 offensive zone face-offs). With an even strength on-ice xG per game of 0.89, Stephenson has similar metrics to centers such as Joel Eriksson Ek and Anze Kopitar, both of whom earn much more than Stephenson’s previous AAV of $2.75M. Of course, Eriksson Ek and Kopitar had 64 and 70 points, respectively, compared to Stephenson’s 51 points. Kopitar was 33rd in o-zone face-off win percentage and Eriksson Ek was 44th. While he not get the same contract was those centers, his expected goal metrics are certainly worth taking note of for free agency.
- Sean Walker, D
- Walker was very solid for Colorado after they traded for him from Philadelphia, where he had 22 points his 63 games. The defenseman played 18 games in the regular season for the Avs with only 7 points, and averaged 18 minutes per game the Avs’ postseason run. His xG metrics, however showed a solid performance in Colorado, where he had 0.95 on-ice xG against per game and +8.99 over xG differential at even strength. Walker’s on-ice xG against per game did jump in the playoffs 1.16, but his ability to plug into a competitive team in Colorado should be valuable to teams adding to their defensive depth.
All Cap and Contract information was sourced from PuckPedia.