New York Rangers (M1) vs Washington Capitals (WC2)
Game 1 Win Probability NYR: 67.91%
Game 1 Win Probability WSH: 32.09%
After taking it all the way to the end of the season, the Capitals secured the final wild card spot in their dramatic win vs Philadelphia on April 16th. Meanwhile, the Rangers locked in the President’s Trophy the day before, beating the Ottawa Senators 4-0 on home ice. Thus, we have a playoff matchup that has been a storyline many times in the last 12 years.
A big point of conversation as the Caps clinched their playoff spot is the goal differential. They sit at a -36 goal differential at all strengths and -32 at even strength. But since the all star break, they are a much improved -6. But the real story here is Charlie Lindgren. His save percentage in the last 3 games played is .941, 1.0, and .964 for a total .961 and in recent months, his save percentage has been steady around or above .910. He will be a tough goaltending matchup for Artemi Panarin, who scored 49 goals and 120 points for the Rangers this year. A major source for the surge in points and goals this season has been his 303 SOG and 7.9 Shot Attempts per Game.
The Rangers average 31.49 Shots on Goal per Game but are only 14th in the NHL in goals at 5v5 and 16th in SOG at 5v5. That is a major concern from a production standpoint as the Capitals take the 6th fewest penalties per game (3.32 penalties). It’s generally hard to bet against Alexander Ovechkin, who averages 7.65 shot attempts per game, but the Rangers have proven that their President’s Trophy was earned. The series won’t be given to the Rangers but the edge is certainly in their favor.
Florida Panthers(A1) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (WC1)
Game 1 Win Probability FLA: 60.43%
Game 1 Win Probability TBL: 39.57%
There is a matchup that may, somehow, not get talked enough about, and no it’s not Bobrovsky vs Vasilevskiy. That matchup will get the proper attention it deserves, as it will be an incredible display of goaltending. But the matchup I’m talking about is Sam Reinhart and Nikita Kucherov.
Kucherov finished the season with the league-leading 144 points, including 100 assists. When it comes to the Hart Trophy conversations, Kucherov is going to be at the top of many lists for not only the 100 assist feat, but also because the player with the 2nd most points on Tampa is Brayden Point at 90. This is a major consideration for Kucherov’s value to his team.
Now, only a few teams have multiple 90+ point goal scorers, like the Avs and the Maple Leafs. The Panthers however, do not. In fact, if you total each player’s points on the both teams, the Lightning total 782 points (5th in the league) and 9 players make up 80% of those points. The Panthers, however, total 706 points and 10 players make up 80%. The reason this is important is because Sam Reinhart, had 94 points, but the drop off is quick, as after Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett is next with 41 points. The 10 players that make up 80% for Florida, which usually indicates strong depth, can be misleading due to such a large difference in each player’s points.
Last year, the Panthers proved they had depth, but they will need to score against a tough Tampa opponent who is 5th in Goals per Game. To add on, the Panthers take the most penalties per game of any team (5.06) and the Lightning’s Powerplay, led by Kucherov, Stamkos and Hedman, is also league leading at 28.6%
Carolina Hurricanes (M2) vs New York Islanders (M3)
Game 1 Win Probability CAR: 64.93%
Game 1 Win Probability NYI: 35.75%
Carolina made a very solid push for the President’s Trophy, finishing with 111 points. They’ve consistently improved their play as well, increasing their goal differential from a +8 on January 1st to +66 by the end of the season. While most playoff teams increase their goal differential throughout the season, accumulating more wins, they took very few downturns in the process in 2024. With a league leading 5,819 shot attempts this season, the Hurricanes have depth in creating chances. Of their 2733 shots on goal, 80% came from 14 players, indicating a full set of lines that can produce offense. This is not good news for the Islanders, who allowed the 4th most shots on goal per game (32.74).
Similar to other teams, the Islanders will have to rely on goaltending. Semyon Varlamov has a top 10 save percentage (.917) among goalies who have played at least 10 games. According to Stefen Rosner of The Hockey News, Varlamov will be the starter for Game 1 over Ilya Sorokin. He will have to be sharp against the high volume Hurricanes this series.
Boston Bruins (A2) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (A3)
Game 1 Win Probability BOS: 55.73%
Game 1 Win Probability TOR: 44.27%
All eyes were on Auston Matthews to get to 70 goals in the last two games of the regular season. While he did not reach that milestone, it can’t be understated the power his goal scoring ability brings to the Maple Leafs.With 69 goals, he scored 12 more goals than the next leading goal scorer (Sam Reinhart) and is 8th in Points/60 (3.78) among players who have played at least 20 games. Not far behind him is William Nylander, who had 98 points and was 10th in Points/60 at 3.6, under the same game threshold. Just in case you think this comes from a dynamic Toronto Powerplay, Matthews’ Even Strength Points/60 is 5th in the NHL and Mitch Marner’s is 8th, under the 20 game threshold.
The Bruins, though, allowed the 6th fewest goals this season. That is because of their dynamic goaltending duo of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, who hold .915 and .916 Save Percentages, respectively, which are tied among the top goalies in the league. Moreover, early in the season, they were posting remarkable numbers and have stayed pretty consistent in solid goaltending since.
Last, but certainly not least, are faceoff matchups. John Tavares is a staggering 59.3% from the faceoff circle and Matthews is sitting solid at 53.4%. While Pavel Zacha and John Beecher are also good matchups for Matthews, Tavares will be a tough opponent for the Bruins. This could be a better matchup than previous years for the Leafs to get into the 2nd round.
